Cartilage Free Captain - All Posts

Benediction: a CFC Community Thread

2013-05-18T16:39:36Z

Friends:

I won't be able to join you this Sunday in the match thread. As Spurs kick off, I'll be gathering with other faculty in the chancel of the college church, watching our seniors and their families celebrate their last day as students in a ceremony called Baccalaureate.

At crucial points this season our community has gathered to tell our most embarrassing selves within the confines of the Karma Thread. This is a familiar impulse, the need to confess. What we seek is double-edged, both the forgiveness of sins and the caching of good vibes for later. We need all the help we can get, the logic goes, and help comes to those who are deserving of it. So we perform the ritual ablutions, expecting a clean heart and right spirit will hasten the arrival of divine aid.

Karma, cosmic justice, righteous wrath or just desserts - if such things actually exist - keep their own council and arrive when they please. Which is why, at the end of this Premier League season, as Tottenham Hotspur once again try to buck the "lovable loser" narrative and get it right for once, I suggest we ditch the confessional and embrace what has always been for me the most consistently meaningful part of any religious service: the benediction. We are a community, and I want to suggest that there is something a little sacred about our gathering, even if (or perhaps especially if) we tend towards the ridiculous and the profane.

In the place of confessions, let's use the comment section to create a community benediction, a space to articulate our hopes and dreams for this, the last game of the 2012-2013 season, and the summer to come. (I suggest starting your contributions with the words "May" or "That.")

So, fellow believers here gathered at Our Lilywhite Lady of the Anxious Hand-wringing, join me, if you feel so inclined, for a few final words, a silly song of sending.

Why Tottenham Hotspur Need A Director Of Football

2013-05-18T13:30:03Z

"The chairman deals with all the transfers. He asks me what I want and I tell him. I don't know where he's at with Bellamy, if anywhere".

- Harry Redknapp on Craig Bellamy, 2011

If and when Tottenham Hotspur hire Franco Baldini or indeed any other figure currently in the frame for the role of Director of Football (or "technical director", according to your tastes), the English media will have a well-worn set of tropes already dusted off and ready to roll out to greet them with- I picture as a type this the Metro editors picking up a phone to Sam Allardyce and asking for 500 words on his experience of how the post is incompatible with the ponderously celebrated "English way of doing things", stat. This reception will not only demonstrate a deep laziness in the staleness of the clichés, but it will also reflect a complete overlooking of a fundamental and longstanding issue which stands between Tottenham Hotspur and tangible, sustained success.

Up until 2008, Tottenham Hotspur had been one of the main sponsors of the position of Director of Football in the Premier League, with Frank Arnesen and Damien Comolli having both taken turns to dictate the direction of the club's transfer policy. With the dismissal of Juande Ramos in that year (and Comolli along with him), the club purported to have scrapped the continental structure for the foreseeable future, moving towards a simplified approach of the manager setting the terms of the club's recruitment. This overhaul was entirely illusory. The club maintains a stratified approach to transfer window activity, with chairman Daniel Levy reserving the ultimate right to pull strings in the market and import figures he sees fit. This much has been betrayed over and over again by the bewilderment and sense of remoteness Harry Redknapp portrayed in press conferences on matters of transfers over the past few years- "Daniel knows. Don't ask me. The chairman will have the final say". And inevitably, whenever the chairman has had the final say in recent times, his purchases have and will continue to be oriented towards the delivery of one key element: value for money.

This state of affairs, to put it in the bluntest possible terms, is the key problem that will hamstring current manager Andre Villas-Boas as he continues to try to implement his plans at Tottenham Hotspur. In many respects it has already hampered his first season at the club. Before Villas-Boas arrived at Tottenham, Gylfi Sigurdsson had already been signed from Hoffenheim as a ready-made successor to the outgoing Rafael van der Vaart. Mousa Dembele was soon added to the squad, to be joined later on deadline day by Hugo Lloris and Clint Dempsey. All of these players have been excellent either in pockets or consistently for Spurs this season; but none of them are Villas-Boas' players. None fit easily into the Portuguese's preferred 4-3-3 system, and no figures that actually do were brought in to accompany them. But all of them, crucially, represented good-value deals in the eyes of the chairman, with all of them being players who had either forced a move away from their club, had already been dismissed as having no future there, or (in Dembele's case) had a release clause built into their contract.

The pursuit of value across transfer windows is in many respects an admirable and sensible way to run a football club. But it is not, in every case, supportive of the football that is played there. Under the reign of Harry Redknapp, possibly the sport's most vocal tactical atheist, this state of affairs was not so much of a problem- Redknapp himself was an active proponent of the footballing ‘bargain bin', and could make something work with almost any collection of players that were given to him at Spurs. During the tenure of Villas-Boas, it will prove to be less of a workable means of supplying players for the first team. In a word, Tottenham's new manager has a philosophy- a strict approach to the game which must be buttressed by the deployment of the right system, and the right players within that system. In this context, it is of paramount importance that, while prudence can guide the transfer process at Tottenham for the seasons to come, it does not continue to be the agenda-setting factor. If Daniel Levy wanted a manager who could simply adjust to using whichever players he could swing a clever deal to bring in, then he has installed the wrong man at the helm of the club.

In the potentially frictional process of identifying and bringing in targets this summer, it is thus clear that some kind of arrangement is required that permits Villas-Boas to keep the club moving in the direction that he wants it to go in whilst allowing Levy to keep the pistons that drive it onwards firing properly. It is for this purpose that the importing of a new Director of Football could be an invaluable asset to Tottenham. In providing an interface between chairman and manager, such a technical director could help to reconcile the two warring motivations which have rendered Tottenham's transfer policy at times sluggish and limiting in recent years- value, and footballing needs- and ensure that the club's philosophy dictates to a greater extent who the club brings in. This figure, ideally one with both a solid background in the sporting side of the game itself but with a healthy history of backroom work in their portfolio, could extensively interact with and subsume the demands of both figures, and then set to work finding the players who sit at the juncture of their differing objectives. To paraphrase Dave Bassett, they would be simultaneously answerable to the board and, crucially, on the side of the manager, helping the head coach to make his case to executives more used to dealing with the technical side of things than the developments that unfold on the pitch. This process, if executed properly, could provide the blend of efficiency, shrewdness and genuine address of the shortcomings in the squad that, paradoxically, the elimination of the Director of Football post and (nominal) transfer of responsibilities back to the manager was originally designed to deliver.

Naturally, it may sound as if I'm gradually outlining a request for the moon on a stick with the candidate that Tottenham may bring in to fill the position. Obviously, it's easy to talk about how fantastic a hypothetical figure that could reconcile the at-times antagonistic wishes of the board and head coach- someone who will support the manager without undermining his ultimate authority- but less straightforward to identify a person who could come in and fulfill that all-important function right in the middle of a crucial summer for the club. It surely isn't too much of a stretch, however, to suggest that Baldini is an extremely decent fit for the role- a technical director with years of experience at Barca and Roma who, crucially, enjoys and excellent personal relationship with Andre Villas-Boas, and thus could prove a valuable ally as the club undergoes it's overdue restructuring process.

In trying to consolidate the influence of football over the transfer dealings of Tottenham Hotspur, Daniel Levy has ultimately only succeeded in finding a new set of ways of rendering the process as sclerotic and unsatisfactory as it was before. The ‘simplified structure', awkward at times under Redknapp, is now totally unfit for purpose under Villas-Boas. Indeed, the manager himself seems to have said as much, offering the highly probative insight in a recent interview on the matter that "the most important thing is the relationship between the person that bridges the gap between manager and board"; indicating strongly that the remote approach has not been to his liking thus far during his tenure at Tottenham. If it doesn't accommodate the interests of the manager, it's no longer in the best interests of the club.

Summarily, the argument in favour of a Director of Football is easy enough to state- it would provide a rubber stamp to impress legitimacy on transfer moves that so badly need to be re-centred around sporting, rather than purely financial, objectives, whilst ensuring such moves are properly tempered and justified to the men who control the purse-strings. All that remains to be seen is whether the man who would be ceding to such a figure pre-eminent control over transfers is happy to embrace the big step forwards that the club badly needs to take.

Last Chance: Stats and Projections for Sunday

2013-05-18T11:25:41Z

Right around the 55 minute mark in the Arsenal-Wigan match on Wednesday, somewhere outside of Sturbridge, my internet radio fuzzed out and only returned a few minutes later. At the time, Wigan Athletic were actually taking the game to Arsenal, sounding like a club with a chance at stealing points on the road and maybe living to fight another day for Premier League survival. I spent a few happy moments considering the possibility over some light static, but then my internet radio was nice enough to snap back into place in time for Arsenal to reestablish their dominance and clearly earn all three points. With Arsenal's victory, the bottom three are locked into place just as much as the top three.

Now it's down to us and them, and Tottenham Hotspur stand a point behind Arsenal heading into Sunday. We will need help from Newcastle United, who just clinched their safety on Sunday, in order to break back into the top four. Spurs have one advantage--playing at home rather than on the road definitely gives us an advantage in the projections.

There isn't much point to publishing a projected table. Everyone projects to take between zero and three points from their remaining game. The top and bottom threes are settled. The only big issue left to settle is 4th place. Spurs have a roughly 36% chance of finishing fourth, while Arsenal have a 64% chance at qualifying for the Champion League.

Match Projections

Club	G	GA	W%	D%	L%
Arsenal (@ NEW)	2.5	1.7	52%	20%	28%
Tottenham (v SUN))	3.0	1.0	77%	13%	10%

Sunderland are not good, Tottenham are very good. The match is being played at White Hart Lane. This should be a gimme. Spurs have been known to lose a gimme, of course. Arsenal haven't been known to drop points in quite a while, but if Newcastle show up to play, they are a decidedly non-terrible side with a dangerous attack. (The less said about their defense, now anchored by third-string keeper Steve Harper, the better.)

Since Spurs can't make the Champions League unless they win and Arsenal draw or lose (barring a swing of 16 or more goals), the numbers for what happens based on game outcomes are pretty straightforward here.

Outcome	W	D	L
Arsenal (@ NEW)	100%	23%	23%
Tottenham (v SUN)	47%	0%	0%

I mentioned earlier that Newcastle are reasonably dangerous, if they show up to play. This is one of the big questions this weekend, as Newcastle could show up higher than the Mayor of Toronto and still play Premier League football next season. The exact extent of the "nothing to play for" effect in the Premier League is something I want to study in more depth over the summer. I found that teams who rated 100% safety with no shot at European football appeared to underperform expectations on both attack and defense by about 10%. The sample was tiny, though, and there's also a risk I was picking up regression to the mean rather than a real effect. (Clubs like West Bromwich Albion, who ran out to a fast start, weren't actually as good as their first ten games, and should be expected to drop a few more points late in the season, for instance.)

So this week I've got a table of altered stats, but they are not juked. These are numbers based on different possible "nothing to play for" effects. All of the altered stats are a little worse than the basic ones.

Effect	0%	10%	25%
Arsenal	64%	67%	73%
Tottenham	36%	33%	27%

Even at a very high level of effect, there's still a non-negligible chance of Newcastle stealing points at home while Tottenham get their win. It's more like 1-4 than 1-in-3, but it's still entirely possible. One of the reasons the nothing-to-play-for effect isn't that huge, here, is that it affect Sunderland as much as Newcastle. So Spurs become progressively more likely to get their necessary win as well.

I'm telling you there's a chance.

The Pros and Cons of David Villa

2013-05-17T17:46:29Z

David Villa burst onto the world stage a decade ago, lighting up La Liga with his remarkable goalscoring ability. His form for Zaragoza and Valencia eventually earned him a dream move to Barcelona, but his time at the Nou Camp has been a bit of a mixed bag. Injury, inconsistent playing time, and a positional shift to wide forward have all combined to see his form erode. A possible transfer to Tottenham has been mooted, but at 31 can he still do the business?

I sat down with Kevin to take a look at the pros and cons of bringing the Spaniard to North London. I think he'd be a great signing, but Kevin has a different take.

Pro: Why we must sign David Villa:

by Lennon's Eyebrow

David Villa is Spain's all-time leading goalscorer, with a strike rate of 53 goals in 88 matches. That is insane.
David Villa scored 20+ goals in ten consecutive seasons. Ten consecutive seasons. That is even more insane.
Seriously. 10 seasons in a row, he scored 20 or more goals.
He would probably score close to 20 goals next year for Tottenham Hotspur.
David Villa is incredibly versatile. He can play as a lone striker, in a front two, or even as a wide forward on the left left.
But his goalscoring form dropped off playing wide left? He still scored 15 goals in 37 games this season from mostly wide positions.
He's a legitimate, bona fide star. He's a big name talent whose mere presence in a Spurs jersey looks good to potential fans and potential future signings. He will sell jerseys and convince other players that this team means business.
For a guy who would probably score 20 goals next season for Spurs, he is incredibly cheap. Even though he has little resale value, spending €12m to get us the goals that will take the team to the next level is worth every penny.

Con: David Villa looks like the asshole who I saw making out with my ex-girlfriend at a bar, and the asshole that you saw making out with your ex-girlfriend at the bar, too.

by Kevin McCauley

It's Friday night. Usually you watch a movie with the girl you're casually dating, go to a concert or hang out at your neighborhood bar where everyone's cool and knows your name, but this Friday night is different. This Friday night, your friends have managed to drag you to some horrible place like Wrigleyville, the Meatpacking District, Clarendon or the Sunset Strip.

None of the girls in the bar are particularly attractive, but they're all carrying themselves like they're the hottest thing on earth. Some asshole with a button-up shirt, top three buttons undone so you can see his chest hair, sporting a soulpatch and a fake tan, takes this as an invitation to grab their asses and ask men in the bar if they "have a problem, bro".

We all see this guy in the bar every time we go out to a horrible bar where we knew we didn't want to go in the first place. He's just memorable enough that you know not to go to the same bar next week, but not memorable enough that you stop going to these kinds of disgusting places altogether.

The week after meeting one of (or many of) these assholes at the bar, you call up your ex, get drunk, make out with her and then one or both of you starts crying before you guys have the chance to have make-up sex. You sleep on her couch. On Saturday morning, you look back at your horrible Friday night with regret, but decide that you still had a better time than your friends who stupidly went to the bar full of soulpatch-sporting brodouches.

You weren't feeling too bad about the crying session that you had with your ex. It was a horrible idea for you guys to have sex, and you were drunk enough that you had mad whiskey dick anyway. Just as you were coming to terms with this, two Friday nights later, your friends convince you go to the bar that you know you're going to hate. There, in that bar, is the soulpatch-sporting brodouche with the button-up shirt he failed to button up, and he's making out with your ex-girlfriend. He looks exactly like David Villa.

I've had this experience, and so have you. Why the hell would we want to relive it every weekend?

Two Tottenham players make England's Under-20 World Cup team

2013-05-17T16:25:46Z

Two Tottenham Hotspur players have been selected for England's squad for the upcoming FIFA Under-20 World Cup, making it six Spurs players who will represent England at major youth international tournaments this summer. Harry Kane and Alex Pritchard will represent their country under coach Peter Taylor in Turkey.

Kane has played 18 times for senior squads this season, making five appearances at Norwich and 13 at Leicester City. Injuries have hindered his campaign a bit, but he scored two goals during his time with Leicester. Pritchard has spent most of his year with Tottenham and has also dealt with injuries, but spent time on loan at Peterborough United.

There's obviously something about Tom Carroll I'm not getting if he's been left off both this team and the Under-21 team, but whatever. Raheem Sterling, Nick Powell and Will Hughes aren't in this team (or the U-21s) either, so I'm going to assume that it means nothing. Congrats to Pritchard and Kane, along with the Under-21 players. The Under-20 team is pretty light on accomplished true center forwards, so expect to see Kane get some time. They're a bit better off in attacking midfield spots ... but there's no Carroll, Powell or Hughes! That bodes well for Pritchard.

Gareth Bale is Barclays Premier League Player of the Season

2013-05-17T15:44:19Z

I don't even know if I even have any more ways of saying 'congratulations' or superlatives to trot out at this point any more, so I'm going to just give you the news straight: Gareth Bale has been named the Barclays Premier League Player of the Season, his fourth award for the season after taking home the PFA Player of the Year, Young Player of the Year and the Football Writers' Association Footballer of the Year.

We know at this point just how incredible a season Bale has had for Tottenham, because we've discussed it, analyzed it and rejoiced in every second of it together this year. All that matters now is what comes next. Please sign a new contract if it's there on the table, Gareth. We need you back with us next term.

Here's a fun little song to brighten up everyone's day.

Harry Nilsson - Without you (via gedanst1)

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sunderland: An interview with Roker Report

2013-05-17T14:39:57Z

In a delicious twist of fate, the footballing Gods have deigned to make the two massive games to be played out this Sunday precisely as earth-shatteringly important for football in North London as they are are almost completely meaningless to their counterparts in the North East (monetary incentive to attain higher League places aside). For Sunderland, this weekend's tie will be all about merely applying the final seal to a season which has been far from satisfying, yet has mercifully not ended in collapse into their next tier down of British football. To get a handle on what that feels like, I had a chat with Simon Walsh of the excellent RokerReport.com about his views on the crunch match that awaits both his side and ours.

++++

EF: What is your view on how Sunderland's season has gone? Do you think the board were right to sack Martin O'Neill when they did? Do you feel Di Canio's appointment has brought on any appreciable changes in the squad's style and performances?

SW: If you look back at our thoughts pre-season for this season, this season has been an unmitigated disaster. Martin O'Neill couldn't get things going and all the warning's we'd had and sort of laughed off from Aston Villa fans proved to be true.

O'Neill was just out of touch and a little too far removed from the modern game. The board were absolutely right to get rid of him when they did, and to be honest they could have done it sooner.

As for Paolo Di Canio, well the jury remains out until he can bring in his own people and mould a team in his image. However, he got us two key results against Newcastle and Everton that have kept us up. I couldn't have envisaged O'Neill getting a single point from either of those games.

He hasn't changed too much really, but does seem to be able to inspire the players more and is a little more organised. He's also -- prior to suspension -- got the best out of Stephane Sessegnon.

EF: With the end of the term almost upon us, who has been Sunderland's Player of the Season, for you? And would you pick out any member of the squad as having had a disappointing season?

SW: Player of the Season will be a close contest between Simon Mignolet and your man Danny Rose. Outside of them perhaps Alfred N'Diaye would have a chance but it's more a case of picking the least crap rather than an outstanding player this season.

I'd go with Mignolet though. He's taken his game to another level and probably won us more points than any goalscorer.

There's been plenty of disappointments. I'd say the biggest though would be Adam Johnson. He's only shown in brief flashes what he can do and for the money we paid you'd like to see the scintillating for he sometimes shows a little more often.

EF: What do you think has been on-loan Tottenham left-back Danny Rose's impact on the side this season? Do you feel he has improved on the defensive side of his game, for which he was occasionally criticized while still at Spurs? How eager are you to have him back for good?

SW: If I was in charge of the purse-strings at Sunderland I'd tell Tottenham to name their price for Rose and pay it. Unfortunately I think he'll be back with you next season and whilst we'll have had the short-term benefit of having him, it's a little disappointing.

Defensively he's solid as a rock, attacking he gets himself plenty involved and he's just been absolute beast at the position. I don't think it's an over-estimation to say that Leighton Baines apart, he's in the conversation for the second/third best left-back in the league.
He's had a superb season. He's been dependable and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an England call next season. He's brilliant, and we love him. As said, I'd pay whatever it takes to have him back.

EF: What is your favourite-ever memory from this particular tie in the past?

SW: I think the one that stands out was a rare victory in 1999 when Niall Quinn scored twice to send us temporarily into third position. Outside of that there's been so many defeats for us in this fixture that they've all just been filed away in my brain under the other mind-numbing losses we've had.

EF: Last time these two sides met, Tottenham managed to claw their way back to a victory after John O'Shea gave us a scare with his first-ever goal in a Sunderland shirt. Do you think that tie should have taught the team any lessons on how they should approach this weekend's game?

SW: It should have. Lots of games we've played should have taught us something but they never seem to learn.

We'll need to keep Gareth Bale quiet but that's easier said than done. I recall Nedum Onuoha doing it a couple of years ago but he's come on leaps and bounds since then and we're likely to have Phil Bardsley playing so it should be pretty easy for the Welshman.

Short of literally parking the bus in front of goal. I think we just have to thank the football Gods that we don't need anything from this game.

EF: Where do you think the key battles will be this weekend?

SW: Too many to mention. We're down to 12 available first team players so I expect to see some experimentation with youth players from Di Canio since they've been filling out the bench of late.

We can't offer much for you to worry about so whoever's in midfield will need to get a foothold in the game and likely stop Tom Huddlestone spraying it about. As I said, we could quite literally park the bus and find a way to lose.

EF: Who do you see as being Tottenham's dangerman, the player that you will have to keep quiet in order to achieve a favourable result?

SW: To pick just one? Well it's obviously going to be Bale isn't it? As much as I dislike his stupid celebration and his face he's an incredible player. Everything seems to start and finish with him so if we can take him out of the game (via marking, not injury) then it increases our chances about 20% I'd say. I've no data to back that up mind.

EF: Assuming Sunderland remain in the Premiership next season, how would you go about preparing/strengthening the side for another year in the competition?

SW: We've got a small squad, but unfortunately most that small squad are utter garbage. Build on the few good players we have such as Mignolet, O'Shea, Cattermole, Fletcher, Sessegnon and so forth and put more around them to work with. Pretty much the entire squad needs reshaping and I wouldn't feel too bad about any of them leaving outside of the afore mentioned.

Just more quality players are needed. I'm sure that's what every team wants but we need it too. Hopefully with the new Director of Football coming in we can explore wider avenues for players.

EF: Finally, what is your score prediction for this tie?

SW: I'd snap someone's arm off for a draw. You don't want to know what I'd do for a win. Thankfully I won't have to worry about this as we're probably going to get beaten in convincing fashion. I'll go for your lot winning 2-0 without getting out of first gear.

Friday Morning Hoddle of Coffee: Tottenham Hotspur News and Links May 17, 2013

2013-05-17T13:46:47Z

Happy Friday, Spurs fans! Two days til judgment day. Two days until we find out if next year will bring a second Champions League adventure or if we learn that caring about anything is thankless and soul-crushing and what's even the point of living anyway?

But don't despair. Here's some links.

Gareth Bale is totally signing a new contract, probably | The Mirror

Supposedly Bale is set to add another year on his contract, keeping him here til 2017 while earning £170,000 a week! Also, we're buying Luke Shaw, David Villa, and Christian Benteke! And we're selling Adebayor, Gallas, Siggy, and Hudd. Also, this story has no quotes and is ~~probably~~ bullshit.

Aaron Lennon to the San Siro | The Mirror

Another Mirror story, and more probable nonsense. Supposedly Inter want Lennon because reasons. I love little Azza, but it honestly wouldn't shock me if the team offloaded him this summer. I'll be sad to see him go, but...

Christian Atsu to Spurs? | Sky Sports

A "mystery club" in the EPL has supposedly bid for Porto's Ghanaian wing wizard. Ooooh, a mystery club! How cloak and dagger. I'd love to have him, but this is also probably nonsense. I'm sorry to degrade the integrity of the Hoddle with all these spurious rumors. It's not my fault theroosevelts has disappeared, leaving behind only the shattered remains of his heart and microwave.

Wilfried Bony on the move | Sky Sports

I guess I'm not that sorry. Here's some more transfer nonsense. Eredivisie top-scorer Bony could be heading to Tottenham. Or Chelsea. Or Anzhi. Or West Ham. Whatever. At least he's not Jozy Altidore.

That's all I got. It's up to you, commentariat. Do a better job and leave some interesting stories in the comments.